Re: [gentoo-user] Genlop wonky again

[Wols Lists <antlists@youngman.org.uk>]

On 06/01/2024 17:59, Peter Humphrey wrote:
> On Saturday, 6 January 2024 16:21:30 GMT Wols Lists wrote:
> 
>> ... it's nothing to do with more power or whatever, it's down to simple
>> statistics. If genloop guesses the statistical spread wrongly, it's
>> going to mess up its estimates.

> Aren't you exaggerating genlop's complexity? I wasn't aware of any use of
> statistics in it, other than a simple arithmetic mean to estimate the time
> remaining. It certainly seems to do that, anyway.

Other than a simple arithmetic mean !!! Other than a simple arithmetic 
mean !!!

If that's the case, you've just confirmed my statement - genloop is 
almost certainly using the wrong statistics for the job !!!

If you take the average (arithmetic mean) of a power-law (exponential 
decay) distribution, your results are going to be garbage.

Statistics is one of those areas where, if you don't know what you're 
doing and you use the wrong maths, then you are going to get stupid results.

"Statistics tell you how to get from A to B. What they don't tell you is 
that you're all at C".

Cheers,
Wol